Global Acquirer Trends, Q3 2026: Another challenging quarter but transactions continue to close

Global deal volumes continued to soften in Q3 2026, but buyers and investors remained willing to commit capital to larger transactions, reflecting a continued flight to quality.

KEY TRENDS

• Global M&A deal volumes fell to 8,134 transactions in Q3 2026, down 11% on the previous quarter and 26% year on year.
• Cross border activity declined more sharply than domestic dealmaking, with cross border transactions falling 14% quarter on quarter to 2,204, compared with a 10% fall in domestic activity. This reflected a broad decline in inbound activity across most major regions, led by North America and APAC, rather than weakness in any one market.
• Transaction values remained considerably more resilient. Average disclosed deal value held broadly flat at £307 million, up 25% year on year, while the number of £1 billion plus ‘megadeal’ transactions fell by only 6% from last year to 171.
• All regions saw declines in dealmaking activity. APAC was the most resilient region by volume, down only 6% quarter on quarter as domestic activity remained almost flat. North America remained the focal point for the largest transactions, accounting for 109 of the quarter’s 171 megadeals. Dealmaking volumes in the UK and Ireland fell 19% in the quarter, while the largest fall in activity was in the Nordics at 20%.
• Industrials was the most resilient sector, with M&A volumes down only 6% quarter on quarter. From a sub-sector perspective, Industrial automation grew 31%, defence activity rose 40% year on year and semiconductor volumes remained broadly stable.
• Private capital transactions fell 8% quarter on quarter, less sharply than the wider market, while private equity sponsor exits rebounded 25% from the low point recorded in Q2.

Lower volumes, but values remain firm

Global M&A activity continued to soften in Q3 2026, but the decline in volumes again masked a more resilient picture at the upper end of the market. While deal counts fell across every major geography and sector, average deal values remained stable and strategic buyers continued to pursue larger transactions.

The latest Global Acquirer Trends data analysed by Arrowpoint Advisory recorded 8,134 transactions during the quarter, 11% fewer than in Q2 2026 and 26% below the restated total for Q3 2025.

The decline was widespread across both geographies and sectors. Cross border activity was particularly weak, falling 14% from the previous quarter and 29% year on year to 2,204 transactions, reflecting the greater risk often associated with cross border deals in the currently febrile macro climate. Domestic dealmaking proved comparatively more robust, with a more modest 10% decline quarter on quarter to 5,930 deals.

By contrast, transaction values remained firm. Average disclosed deal value was broadly unchanged from the previous quarter at £307 million and was 25% higher than a year earlier. The number of transactions valued at more than £1 billion fell 10% from Q2 to 171, but was only 6% lower than in Q3 2025.

The divergence between volumes and values therefore persisted. Broader deal flow continued to thin, while buyers remained willing to commit substantial capital to assets of comparative scale, strategic value, defensible market positions or exposure to long-term structural growth.

North America dominates larger cap deals as APAC proves more resilient by volume

North America remained the largest regional market, with 2,627 transactions completed during the quarter. Volumes fell 12% from Q2 and 22% year on year, but large transaction activity strengthened.

The region recorded 109 ‘megadeals’, up 10% quarter on quarter and accounting for almost two thirds of the global total. Nine of the 10 largest disclosed transactions in the dataset involved North American targets, including Electronic Arts, Aligned Data Centers and AvalonBay Communities. Average disclosed deal value for the region rose 24% from Q2 to £641 million.

APAC recorded the smallest quarterly decline among the major regions. Its 2,161 transactions represented a 6% fall from Q2, with domestic activity down only 2%. Cross border investment into the region fell 21%, however, while megadeal activity declined 38%.

This indicates APAC’s relative resilience was driven principally by local dealmaking rather than a recovery in international deal flows or the largest transactions.

Continental Europe reported 1,735 deals, down 9% quarter on quarter. UK and Ireland activity fell 19% to 740 transactions, while the Nordics recorded the sharpest quarterly regional decline, down 20% to 527. Cross border and domestic volumes both weakened across Europe, although inbound activity into Continental Europe proved somewhat more robust than its domestic market.

Industrials and large technology transactions provide the clearest resilience

The Industrials sector was the strongest of the major sectors, with 1,773 deals completed during Q3. Volumes declined 6% from Q2 and 17% year on year, less sharply than the wider market.

Several strategically important industrial sub-sectors outperformed. Industrial automation activity rose 31% quarter on quarter, defence transactions increased 5% from Q2 and 40% year on year, while semiconductor and industrial electronics volumes were broadly stable. The sector also recorded 45 megadeals, 32% more than in Q3 2025.

Media and Technology volumes fell 12% quarter on quarter to 1,994 deals, but activity at the upper end of the market strengthened considerably. The sector recorded 43 megadeals, up 30% from Q2, while average disclosed transaction value rose 47% to £325 million. Large software, telecommunications and digital infrastructure transactions continued to attract capital despite weaker overall deal flow.

Business Services remained the largest sector globally, with 2,945 reported transactions, although this represented a 13% quarterly decline. Average disclosed value rose 10% to £420 million, providing further evidence of capital concentrating around larger, high-quality assets. Consumer and Pharmaceutical activity remained weaker, falling 12% and 10% from Q2 respectively.

PE sponsor exits improve as the IPO route remains quiet

Private capital activity remained relatively resilient. PE and VC backed activity fell 8% quarter on quarter to 2,245, compared with an 11% decline across the wider market. Financial investors therefore accounted for approximately 28% of global deal activity, up slightly from Q2.

More notably, sponsor-backed disposals increased 25% from the previous quarter to 639 transactions. Exit activity remained 15% below Q3 2025, but the rebound suggests sponsors are becoming more willing to transact where pricing expectations align. With many funds approaching the latter stages of investment cycles, pressure to monetise mature assets appears to be supporting renewed exit activity.

The public market exit route remained constrained. There were no recorded London IPOs during Q3, compared with five in Q2, while five take-private or de-listing developments were recorded during the quarter, four involving London-listed companies. Against that backdrop, M&A continues to play an important role in providing liquidity for shareholders and financial sponsors.

Outlook: recovery remains concentrated

This quarter’s data does not yet provide evidence of a broad-based recovery in global dealmaking. M&A volumes declined across every major geography and broad sector, with cross border activity continuing to face the greatest pressure.

However, the underlying picture is more balanced than the headline transaction figures suggest. Average deal values remained firm, megadeal activity proved comparatively resilient, North American large-cap transactions continued to close, and sponsor exits improved from the previous quarter. Industrials is enjoying its moment in the sunshine as Defence concerns and spending across digital and critical national infrastructure supports strong order books.

The defining feature of the current market is not a lack of capital, but a lack of conviction. Buyers and investors continue to pursue assets offering scale, technology leadership and strategic relevance, while more marginal transactions remain delayed.

A broader recovery will depend less on the availability of financing and more on improving confidence across the wider corporate and sponsor landscape. Until then, global M&A is likely to remain highly selective, with capital concentrated around assets offering clear growth, scale or strategic capability.